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This blog is aimed at experienced football punters who are more serious about soccer betting. I’ll assume that you probably look at statistics before placing any bets and it’s likely that you will closely follow a couple of leagues. You like to think that you are making a healthy profit from your punting and maybe you are considering upping your stakes for more lucrative winnings.

Knowledge and research play an important part in football predictions, but so too do basic mathematics and a systematic approach. Once you refine and are satisfied with your system, it’s paramount to study your track record over time. Here are some methods used by systematic professional soccer tipsters around the world.

Keep a record of bets: It’s easy to lose sight of your overall performance when you have a profitable weekend. As humans we like to focus on the positive aspects of life. This also applies to betting. We try to ignore or forget about any losses or bad results but love to tell others about our big wins. Keep a record or log of your soccer bets, with a profit and loss column. This will quickly establish whether you are actually profiting from your punting.

The Home and Away Principle: This is not a myth. For whatever reasons – knowledge of the pitch, familiarity with surroundings, majority of fans etc - the fact of the matter is that close to half of all games result in wins for the home team. Look at the results for any league over a period of, say, a month. The home team always has the advantage, regardless of league position. Avoid betting on away teams unless there is sufficient value being offered.

Calculate value: You should be at a level where you can work out the chances of a team winning, based on your stats, knowledge and research. Comparing this against the price on offer will determine whether or not you are getting value from the bookmaker. Let’s say you have decided that Team A has a 50% chance of winning. The fair value of this bet is 2.00 and you should only bet on this fixture if you can get odds of greater than 2.00. To work out the fair value of any bet, divide 1.00 by your calculated percentage (in this case 50%) which gives you 2.00 in this case.

Recent Form: Looking at a league table half way through the season will not give you an accurate guide as to how a team is performing at that time. A team may start the season very poorly, losing their first eight games to leave them at the foot of the table. Now, perhaps due to a new manager, in-form striker or record signing, the club has won four games in a row. Morale is good and the players have been galvanized. This is clearly not a team you should bet against. Looking at the league table they will have bettered their position, but a snapshot will show that they are probably still in the bottom third. If you weren’t aware of recent results they may appear like easy beats. Always check a team’s form over at least six to eight games.

Other Factors: Some fixtures will have factors which result in the ‘form book going out the window’, to quote an over-used cliché. Local derbies are an example of this. Players, fans and the media get so hyped up for these encounters that attempts to predict a result can often be futile. Sacking a manager after a bad run of results should also raise alarm bells with expert soccer tippers. A new manager tends to result in players giving extra effort to secure their place in the team. A team playing a match a couple of days after an exhausting midweek European trip is another time when upsets can happen.

There is no magic formula that will result in you winning every bet. You can, however, significantly increase your profits by taking all these factors into account. For more advice and free soccer tips by our expert soccer tipster, go to our home page to find out how you can become a free member.

 

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Sample Tip emailed to Members:

Hallescher  v  Karlsruhe GERMANY 3 LIGA  8 December 2012

Our next pick comes from the third tier of German football, where I'm tipping Karlsruhe (who provided us with a win last weekend) to continue their excellent form today. They have now moved up to third place thanks to a superb winning streak of seven consecutive league games (the last three wins were by a margin of 3 or more goals). Today they travel to play an inconsistent Hallescher side that haven't won at home since August. Their home record currently stands at 2.3.4 and they sit just 2 points clear of the relegation zone before kick off. Karlsruhe have won four and drawn two of their last six league games on the road and the free scoring side look great value to do the business today. Odds for a Karlsruhe victory are too good to overlook and seem to have been overpriced by the bookmakers. Away win. 

 Verdict:     Away win at $2.10   Outcome:  WIN  Result 0-2

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