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Monday, 20 September 2010
Administrator
No doubt at some stage you will have heard the term "the bookie always wins". This is absolutely true in the long run because bookmakers incorporate a percentage margin into their odds, known as the overround. To illustrate how the overround works we'll use a very basic example  tossing a coin. We know that the probability of a head or tail being tossed is 50%. These are the only two possible outcomes in this example and they add up to 100%. Mathematically the sum of all probable outcomes for any event must equal 100%. In the above example, the fair odds are 2.00 (100/50). In order to make money, the bookmaker will 'price up' the book or reduce the odds. In this instance lets assume he will offer odds of 1.90 for heads and 1.90 for tails. This is another way of saying that the probability of either outcome is 52.6% (100/1.9) when we already know it's 50%. The overround in this example is 105.2% (52.6% + 52.6%) and as long as it is big enough , the bookmaker will always be ahead in the long run. The closer an overround is to 100%, the more competitive the market and the better value odds on offer for punters. Because sporting events are never conducted under the same conditions and are subject to a myriad of external factors, the true odds (i.e. odds based on the statistical probability) are a matter of opinion. Bookmakers use vast amounts of data and statistics to arrive at their odds, but external factors cannot always be quantified  e.g. weather, illness, injury, bad refereeing etc. This is where an expert soccer tipster can give sound betting advice in order to get ahead of the bookmaker. Go to our home page now to find out about free soccer tips and football betting advice. 

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